Last reviewed: July 2026

COVID-19 Risk Snapshot

CDC estimates 10.4-16.7 million COVID-19 illnesses and 34,000-53,000 deaths in the US during the 2024-25 respiratory virus season — figures now tracked as modeled ranges rather than confirmed case counts, since COVID-19 is no longer individually notifiable nationwide.

Written and researched by Andy Wilcox · Last reviewed: July 2026

The Numbers

COVID-19 risk snapshot chart — severe outcome, hospitalization, and case fatality rates
  • Annual illnesses (US): 10,400,000-16,700,000
  • Annual deaths (US): 34,000-53,000

Source: CDC MMWR — Respiratory Virus Activity, United States, July 1, 2024-June 30, 2025 · Data as of 2026-02-19

Severe outcome rate, hospitalization rate, and case-fatality rate figures specific to COVID-19 are not published by CDC as a single national percentage, so this snapshot reports the illness and death range only. See the full comparison tool for how this fits alongside 14 other viruses.

Case counts and mortality data on this page are sourced directly from CDC as cited above. This is statistical and educational information, not medical advice or a risk assessment for any individual. Figures change as CDC updates seasonal estimates — check the "data as of" date and linked source for the latest numbers.

Compare COVID-19 against 14 other viruses on the Virus Risk Perspective tool →

Andy Wilcox, independent researcher and founder of Virus Questions

Andy Wilcox

Written and researched by Andy Wilcox, an independent researcher not a physician — his work is the product of disciplined primary-source research drawing on 30+ years as a consultant, operating executive, and investor. Nothing here is medical advice.